Happy early Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and overall deal week! The holidays may look different this year, but holiday shopping doesn’t look as unusual as you may think.
Table of Contents
1. 🎶 deck the holidays
2. 🎶 it's the most wonderful deals of the year
3. 🎶 run shoppers run, brands got to get in the red
4. 🎶 shoppers are comin' to town
5. 🎶 consumers, baby please stay home (or stay safe)
🎶 deck the holidays
I believe the holiday season should start with Thanksgiving. I will not approve of Christmas music and decorations right after Halloween. Nonetheless, holiday shopping started early this year in October, which was bolstered by the late Prime Day/Deal Days at other retailers. So, shopping is well on its way, especially now during the week of Black Friday.
The CDC has discouraged citizens from traveling this November and December. The NRF has concluded that 19% of holiday shoppers said that they canceled their typical holiday travel plans. Though 53% of those who changed their travel plans are more likely to spend more due to lack of travel.
I remember my mama used say “outside ain’t going nowhere” now look at outside? Gone.
— Ca$hly Banks (@TypicalLowLife) March 26, 2020
🎶 it’s the most wonderful deals of the year
Black Friday is continuing to lose its significance this holiday season too. I guess that’s not that new. Every year the days of discounts get stretched longer. Apparently, Black Friday was supposed to be a negative event. It became associated with the holidays in the 1960s. It has its origins in Philly too. Market Street, where the major department stores were located, would be crowded from the Army-Navy game. Consumers also looked to see the department store window displays, which typically were unveiled on Friday.
This year, the deals have been rolling out early. We had Prime Day and the subsequent copy-cat Deal Days in October. Target has had discounts all month. It seems every place has major deals starting this week. So, people are really being encouraged to shop early.
🎶 run shoppers run, brands got to get in the red
Okay, brands are doing their ‘thang,’ encouraging people to buy. But what’s the genuine consumer outlook? The NPD projects an increase in the traditional holiday months of November to December to be +2.5-3.4% and the new holiday (mid-October Prime Days/Deal Days to mid-January gift card reception) to be +4.3-5.1%. They say that consumers plan to spend an average of $691 in the 2020 holiday shopping season. While that’s less than last year’s anticipated estimates, it’s on par with 2018’s figures. The NRF has the total spend to be $997.79 on gifts, holiday items such as decorations and food, and additional “non-gift” purchases for themselves and their families.
🎶 shoppers are comin’ to town
Well, kind of. As you’d expect, most consumers are shopping online. That means that free shipping is going to be a huge determiner of where they shop. 41% of consumers cited free shipping as something that would influence where they shop for holiday gifts, surpassing special sale prices as the top influencer according to NPD. Only 9% mention curbside options as an influencer – so don’t look to rely on that. Further, 42% of shoppers plan to ship most of their gifts due to COVID preventing them from seeing family and friends.
Additionally, with the ‘rona, gifting experiences doesn’t quite have the same lure now, does it? Instead, people will likely look for food and DIY experiences. (Think of a trip to Italy through wine and food or at-home spa products.) With the stress of the pandemic and this crazy year, people will also look for retail therapy and gifts for themselves. 31% of shoppers plan to do more self-gifting as retail therapy.
🎶 consumers, baby please stay home (or stay safe)
If you’re a marketer, you probably already know all of this. Even so, it’s important to note that despite it being a crazy year, holiday shopping doesn’t look too much different than other years. This year has surprised many with how stable spending and paying down old debts have been. US shoppers are considerably unflappable.
No matter how you celebrate this year, please stay safe. Quarantine fatigue is a real thing. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a pandemic, though. Take care of yourself and your family members!